U.S. Macro Dashboard

Growth · Labor · Inflation · Financial Conditions · Credit · Housing · Energy — 2025 actuals · 2026 outlook

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Broad Sector Groups — Real GDP % Change

Annual YoY · E = estimate · F = forecast (Deloitte / EY-Parthenon)

Sources: BEA GDP by Industry — Q4 2024 Third Estimate (Mar 2025) · Q4 2025 Advance Estimate (Feb 2026) · Forecasts: Deloitte U.S. Economic Outlook Q4 2025, EY-Parthenon.

👷 Unemployment Commentary — Trends & Risk Factors

Latest: U-3 at 4.4% (Feb 2026), up from 4.3% in Jan — above the 2023 trough of 3.4% but below the historical average of ~5.7%. U-6 broad unemployment at 7.9%. Feb payrolls printed −92K — the first negative month since the pandemic, driven by federal workforce reductions (DOGE) and tariff-exposed manufacturing. Weekly claims steady at 205K (Mar'26), suggesting layoffs remain contained outside government. Sectoral divergence widening: Construction & manufacturing unemployment rising; healthcare remains tight. Long-term unemployment (27+ weeks) ticking higher. 2026 scenarios: Base 4.3–4.5% (GS/JPM); bear case 5.0–5.5% if tariff shock + federal cuts compound; bull case 4.0% if AI productivity accelerates. The Fed watches prime-age EPOP (~80.7%) as its cleanest signal.

Monthly Unemployment Rate — 12-Month Trend

Monthly rate (%) · BLS CPS · seasonally adjusted · dashed line = 2024 annual avg (4.0%)

Source: BLS Current Population Survey (CPS), seasonally adjusted monthly data. 2024 annual average shown as reference baseline.

Unemployment by Sector — Monthly MoM Change (pp)

Change in unemployment rate vs prior month · BLS CPS · Mar'26 vs Feb'26 · sorted by change

Mar'26 rate rose Mar'26 rate fell Feb'26

Source: BLS Current Population Survey (CPS), seasonally adjusted. Month-over-month change in unemployment rate by sector (percentage points).

National Unemployment Rate — Annual Average

% of civilian labor force · BLS CPS seasonally adjusted

Source: BLS Series LNS14000000 (Unemployment Rate, SA) · Each bar = average of 12 monthly readings for that year, e.g. 2025 = (Jan 4.2 + Feb 4.1 + … + Dec 4.4) ÷ 12 = 4.3%.

Unemployment by Sector — 2025 vs 2024 (%)

2025 rate vs 2024 rate · BLS CPS · seasonally adjusted

2025 improved (lower) 2025 worsened (higher) 2024

Source: BLS Current Population Survey (CPS) Table A-14. Seasonally adjusted, 2025 vs 2024 rates by industry sector.

Weekly Jobless Claims — Initial & Continued

Seasonally adjusted · DOL via FRED · Initial claims (left axis) · Continued claims (right axis)

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Initial Claims (ICSA) & Continued Claims (CCSA), seasonally adjusted. Updated weekly (Thursdays).

Unemployment Rate by Industry — Annual Data

Annual averages · BLS Current Population Survey · industry categories

Source: BLS CPS Table A-14 (unemployed by industry). Annual averages from BLS CPS. Feb 2026 overall rate: 4.4%. Note: Leisure & Hospitality and Construction carry highest cyclical unemployment. Information/Tech unemployment has risen with 2023–24 tech layoffs.

❓ Why does Government show the lowest unemployment (~2.2%) despite −327K federal job losses?
Three separate effects explain this apparent paradox:
1. Different surveys, different populations. The −327K job loss is from the payroll survey (CES — counts employer jobs). The 2.2% unemployment is from the household survey (CPS — counts people). They don't have to move together.
2. The −327K is cumulative peak-to-trough (Oct 2024 → Mar 2026), not a 2025 annual figure. The 2025 annual net change was −200K. State & local government added +70K in 2025, partially offsetting federal losses. The unemployment sector "Government" covers all government workers — federal, state, and local combined.
3. Displaced federal workers rarely become "unemployed" in BLS terms. To be counted as unemployed you must be actively job-searching. Most affected federal workers: retire early, transfer to state/local roles, move to contractor positions (which are counted in private-sector payrolls), or simply exit the labor force — none of which register as unemployment.

🛒 CPI Commentary — Inflation Trajectory & Fed Implications

Latest: Headline CPI at +2.4% YoY (Feb 2026), holding steady from Jan and down from +2.7% at Dec'25 year-end. Down from +9.1% peak in June 2022. Core CPI at +2.5% (Feb) — sticky, driven by shelter (+3.0%), food (+3.1%), and services. But Core PCE jumped to +3.1% (Jan'26) — the Fed's preferred gauge re-accelerating and well above the 2% target. Shelter lag: BLS tracks rents with 12–18 month delay; real-time data (Zillow) shows flat-to-negative growth — shelter CPI should drag toward 2–3% through 2026. Tariff risk: 2026 consensus +2.3–3.1% depending on tariff pass-through on goods. The Fed unlikely to cut if Core PCE stays above 2.5%. Watch: Used cars, OER, and airfares — the three most volatile core components.

Monthly CPI — Headline vs Core YoY % (12-Month Trend)

CPI-U All Urban Consumers · monthly YoY readings · headline (all items) vs core (ex food & energy) · BLS

Source: BLS CPI-U, seasonally adjusted. Headline includes all items; Core excludes food & energy. Fed 2% target shown as reference.

CPI by Category — MoM Change (Feb'26 vs Jan'26)

YoY % by category · Feb'26 vs Jan'26 · sorted by Feb'26 rate · BLS CPI-U

Feb'26 accelerating Feb'26 cooling Jan'26

Source: BLS CPI-U All Urban Consumers. Monthly YoY % change by category. Feb'26 vs Jan'26 comparison.

U.S. CPI Inflation — Annual Rate (Dec-to-Dec YoY %)

CPI-U All Urban Consumers · U.S. City Average · BLS

Source: BLS Series CUUR0000SA0 (CPI-U All Urban Consumers, SA) · Each bar = Dec-to-Dec YoY % change for that calendar year, e.g. 2025 = Dec'25 CPI vs Dec'24 CPI = +2.7%.

CPI by Category — 2022 Peak vs 2024 vs 2025

Dec-to-Dec % change · grouped comparison

Source: BLS CPI-U All Urban Consumers. Dec-to-Dec % change by category.

CPI Category Annual Rates

Dec-to-Dec % change · BLS CPI-U

Source: BLS CPI-U. Feb 2026 = +2.4% YoY; Jan 2026 = +2.4%; Dec 2025 = +2.7%. Oct–Nov 2025 data unavailable (gov't shutdown). Core CPI Feb 2026: +2.5%.

💵 Wage Growth Commentary — Nominal vs Real

Latest: Nominal AHE at +3.7% YoY (Feb'26), easing from the 2025 year-end +3.8%. Down from the +5.9% peak in 2022 but above the pre-pandemic ~3.0% norm. Real wages +1.3% YoY (Feb'26) — positive for 19 consecutive months as CPI has fallen faster than wage growth. Sectoral spread: Tech/finance wages still elevated (+5–7%); retail and logistics normalizing. Union contracts (auto, airline, healthcare) locked in 4–5% raises through 2027. ECI at +3.8% (Q4 2025) — the Fed's preferred wage gauge, still above the ~3% consistent with 2% inflation. 2026: Wage growth settling in the 3.5–4.0% range; real wages positive. Services inflation stays sticky if wages remain elevated.

Monthly Wage Growth — Nominal vs Real YoY % (12-Month Trend)

Average Hourly Earnings YoY % · nominal (solid) vs real CPI-adjusted (dashed) · BLS CES

Source: BLS Current Employment Statistics (CES), Average Hourly Earnings. Real wages = nominal minus CPI YoY. Monthly readings, seasonally adjusted.

Nominal vs Real Wage Growth — All Private

Avg hourly earnings YoY % · nominal (solid) vs real inflation-adj (dashed)

Source: BLS Series CES0500000003 · Each year = average of 12 monthly YoY % readings. Real = nominal minus CPI. e.g. 2025: nominal +3.8%, real +1.1%.

Avg Hourly Earnings by Sector — 2025 vs 2024

Nominal YoY % change · 2025 vs 2024 · BLS CES Table B-3

2025 higher 2025 lower 2024

Source: BLS Current Employment Statistics (CES) Table B-3. Nominal YoY % change by sector.

Wage Growth by Sector — Annual Nominal %

Avg hourly earnings YoY % · BLS CES Table B-3 · Note: real wages were negative in 2021–22 despite high nominal gains (peak CPI)

Source: BLS Series CES0500000003 (Avg Hourly Earnings, All Private, SA) · Each year = average of 12 monthly YoY % readings, e.g. 2025 nominal = (Jan + Feb + … + Dec YoY%) ÷ 12 = +3.8%. Real = nominal minus CPI.

📋 Jobs Market Commentary — 2025 & 2026 Outlook

Latest: Mar'26 nonfarm payrolls rebounded +178K, reversing Feb's −92K contraction. Healthcare led (+90K), with broad gains in leisure (+44K), construction (+26K), and transport (+21K). Federal government continued shedding (−18K). 2025 full-year (revised): +116K total (Dec-to-Dec) after the Jan'26 benchmark revision slashed prior estimates by −862K. Weekly claims steady at 205K — no broad layoff surge. JOLTS openings ~7.6M, down from 12M peak; quits rate at 2019 levels. 2026 outlook: March rebound suggests Feb was weather/DOGE distortion, not a labor market breakdown. Consensus ~100–140K/mo going forward. Key risk: if tariff escalation stalls hiring in Q2–Q3, payroll momentum could fade.

Monthly Employment Change — BLS Total Nonfarm vs ADP Private (thousands)

BLS CES = Total Nonfarm (includes government) · ADP = Private sector only (excludes government) · divergences reflect methodology differences · adpemploymentreport.com

Sources: BLS CES Total Nonfarm (FRED PAYEMS, auto-updated). ADP National Employment Report (private sector only, manually updated). BLS and ADP use different methodologies and coverage — divergences are common and informative.

Monthly Job Change by Sector — Feb'26 vs Mar'26 (thousands)

BLS CES major sector breakdown · month-over-month net payroll change · sorted by Mar'26

Mar'26 improved vs Feb Mar'26 worsened vs Feb Feb'26

Source: BLS CES major sector breakdown. Monthly net payroll change, seasonally adjusted.

Total Nonfarm Payrolls Added — Annual (thousands)

Net job gains/losses · BLS CES · seasonally adjusted · 2026F base case +1,000K · range +800K–+1,200K · tariff-adjusted · pre-tariff consensus was +1,500K

Source: BLS Current Employment Statistics (CES), seasonally adjusted. Annual net job gains/losses.

Job Gains by Sector — 2025 vs 2024 (thousands)

Annual net change in payroll employment · BLS CES · → indicates sub-sector

2025 higher 2025 lower 2024

Source: BLS Current Employment Statistics (CES). Annual net change in payroll employment by sector.

Employment Change by Sector — Annual Net (thousands)

BLS CES · seasonally adjusted · 2025 revised to +116K total (Jan 2026 benchmark, Dec-to-Dec PAYEMS)

Source: BLS CES (seasonally adjusted, post-Jan 2026 benchmark revision). Mar 2026: +178K, led by healthcare (+90K), leisure (+44K), construction (+26K). 2025 full-year (Dec-to-Dec): +116K after benchmark revision slashed prior estimates by −862K.

💳 PCE & Consumer Commentary — Spending Health & Household Stress

Latest: Core PCE re-accelerated to +3.1% YoY (Jan'26), up from +3.0% in Dec'25 — running above the Fed's 2% target for 49+ consecutive months. Real consumer spending grew +2.8% in 2025 but momentum is fading. Saving rate 4.5% (Jan'26) — ticking up from Dec's 4.0%, suggesting consumers are pulling back. Household debt $18.0T; mortgage manageable due to locked-in 3% rates; credit card + auto delinquencies rising — card 90+ DPD at 11.3%. DSR at 11.3% of disposable income and climbing. Sentiment collapsed: UMich at 56.6 (Feb'26), down sharply from 73.0 in 2024 — tariff anxiety and inflation expectations driving pessimism. Consumer bifurcation intensifying: Top 40% (asset-owners) spending robustly; bottom 40% cutting discretionary.

PCE Price Index — Monthly Headline vs Core YoY %

Last 12 months · BEA · Fed's preferred inflation gauge · 2% target shown

Source: BEA Personal Income & Outlays release. Core PCE excludes food & energy — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

PCE Price Index — Annual Headline vs Core YoY %

Dec-to-Dec YoY % change · 2000–2025 · BEA

Source: BEA Series PCEPI / PCEPILFE. Each year = Dec-to-Dec YoY % change. 2025: Headline +2.9%, Core +3.0%.

PCE by Category — MoM Change (Jan'26 vs Dec'25)

Real PCE spending growth by category · sorted by Jan'26 rate · BEA

Jan'26 accelerating Jan'26 cooling Dec'25

Source: BEA Personal Income & Outlays. Real (inflation-adjusted) consumer spending growth by category.

PCE by Category — Annual Growth 2023 vs 2024 vs 2025

Inflation-adjusted consumer spending growth · BEA

Source: BEA Personal Income & Outlays. Real (inflation-adjusted) consumer spending growth by category.

Personal Saving Rate — Last 12 Months

BEA Personal Income & Outlays · % of disposable income · Pre-pandemic avg: ~7–9%

Source: BEA Personal Income & Outlays. Personal saving rate as % of disposable income.

Personal Saving Rate — Annual Averages (2000–2025)

Annual avg of monthly saving rate · BEA · COVID spike 2020: 15.1%

Source: BEA Personal Income & Outlays. Annual average of monthly personal saving rate.

Consumer Sentiment — Last 12 Months

U. of Michigan Survey of Consumers · Monthly index · sca.isr.umich.edu

Source: University of Michigan Survey of Consumers / FRED UMCSENT. Pre-pandemic avg ~95.

Consumer Sentiment — Annual (2000–2025)

Annual avg index · U. of Michigan Survey · 2022 trough: 50.0 (inflation shock)

Source: University of Michigan Survey of Consumers / FRED UMCSENT. Pre-pandemic avg ~95. 2022 trough: 50.0 (inflation shock).

Household Debt & Delinquencies — NY Fed Data

Total household debt $18.59T (Q3 2025) · delinquency rates by type

Source: NY Fed Center for Microeconomic Data — Household Debt & Credit, Q3 2025 (Equifax). Note: NY Fed/Equifax figures cover all credit card issuers (banks, credit unions, fintech, retail). Fed Board series (FRED RCCCBACTDPD90P) covers commercial banks only and reports ~7.8% — lower due to tighter bank underwriting standards.

Debt Service Ratio (TDSP) — % of Disposable Income

Household debt service payments as % of disposable income · Federal Reserve Board · Quarterly

Source: FRED TDSP · Federal Reserve Board. Includes mortgage + consumer debt payments. 2007 peak: ~13.2%. Current: ~11.3%.

Consumer Health Dashboard — Debt, Savings & Spending Metrics

Annual snapshot · BEA, NY Fed, Federal Reserve Board

Sources: BEA Personal Income & Outlays Dec 2025 (Feb 20, 2026); NY Fed Household Debt & Credit Q3 2025 (Nov 2025); Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report Nov 2025; BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey. Personal saving rate Jan 2026: 4.5% — up from revised 4.0% (Dec'25); highest since Jul'25. Excess pandemic savings largely exhausted by mid-2024.

🏦 Big Bank Q4 2025 Earnings — January 13–15, 2026 — The six largest U.S. banks reported strong Q4 2025 results. Tailwinds: record trading revenues, resurgent M&A (global volume +42% to $5.1T in 2025), Wells Fargo asset cap removal, deregulation optimism. Headwinds intensifying into Q1'26: Core PCE re-acceleration to 3.1% complicates the rate outlook; Feb'26 payrolls at −92K raise credit loss concerns; JPM $2.2B Apple Card reserve build signals caution; proposed 10% credit card APR cap (Trump) threatens card economics. Consumer credit: NCO rates elevated vs. pre-pandemic — card specialists (SYF 5.4%, COF 4.9%) at 2011-era highs while diversified banks holding steady. 2026 theme: "disciplined efficiency" — AI investment + expense control as NII normalizes post-rate-cuts.

Big 6 Banks — Q4 2025 Earnings Comparison

Full-year 2025 results from Q4 2025 earnings releases · Jan 13–15, 2026

Sources: Q4 2025 earnings releases from JPM, BAC, WFC, C, GS, USB (Jan 13–15, 2026). Full-year 2025 results.

2026 NII Guidance — Full-Year Outlook ($B)

Net Interest Income guidance from Q4 2025 earnings calls

Source: Q4 2025 earnings calls from major U.S. banks (Jan 2026). Net Interest Income guidance.

Net Charge-Off Rates & Delinquency Outlook 2025–2026

Consumer credit loss rates · Q4 2025 actuals & 2026 guidance

Source: Q4 2025 earnings releases. Consumer credit loss rates and 2026 guidance.

Bank-by-Bank Earnings Commentary — Key Themes from Q4 2025 Calls

Management commentary synthesis · Jan 13–15, 2026 earnings calls

Sources: JPMorgan Chase Q4 2025 (Jan 13, 2026); Bank of America Q4 2025 (Jan 14, 2026); Wells Fargo Q4 2025 (Jan 14, 2026); Citigroup Q4 2025 (Jan 14, 2026); Goldman Sachs Q4 2025 (Jan 15, 2026); U.S. Bancorp Q4 2025 (Jan 19, 2026); Capital One Q4 2025 (Jan 22, 2026); Synchrony Financial Q4 2025 (Jan 27, 2026); American Express Q4 2025 (Jan 30, 2026). All earnings calls and press releases. Trump 10% credit card APR cap proposed early 2026 — material risk to all card issuers. Capital One–Discover integration ongoing; Brex acquisition announced $5.15B Jan 22, 2026.

📊 2025 Actuals & 2026 Outlook (as of Mar 2026) — Full-year 2025 real GDP: +2.2% (Q1: −0.6%, Q2: +3.8%, Q3: +4.4%, Q4: +1.4%). Feb'26 snapshot: Unemployment 4.4% (↑); payrolls −92K (first negative since pandemic); CPI +2.4% YoY; Core PCE +3.1% (↑ re-accelerating); wages +3.7% nominal; UMich sentiment 56.6 (↓ sharply). Fed Funds at 3.64% — FOMC on hold as inflation re-firms and labor softens. 2026 consensus: GDP 1.9–2.5% (GS: +2.6% bull, Deloitte: +1.9% base). Recession probability rising: ~20–30% (GS: 20%, RSM: 30%) — Feb jobs miss and Hormuz oil shock may push estimates higher. Key risks: tariff pass-through, Core PCE persistence above 2.5%, SCOTUS IEEPA ruling, federal spending cuts.

2025 Quarterly GDP — BEA Estimates

Annualized % change by quarter · 2025 full year +2.2%

Source: BEA. Real GDP annualized % change by quarter, 2025.

2024 vs 2025 vs 2026F — Key Macro Indicators

Annual comparison · 2026 = consensus midpoint estimate

Sources: BEA (GDP), BLS (unemployment, wages, CPI), Federal Reserve (rates). 2026F = consensus midpoint.

2026 Forecast Scenarios — Institution Comparison

Major forecast providers · published Jan–Feb 2026 · ordered by GDP outlook

Sources: Goldman Sachs Macro Outlook Jan 2026; Deloitte US Economic Forecast Jan 2026; EY-Parthenon Q4 2025; RSM US Economic Outlook Jan 2026; Morgan Stanley Global Economic Outlook; JP Morgan Economic Trends Dec 2025; IBRC Indiana Business Research Center; Stanford SIEPR Jan 2026. Recession probability = next 12 months as of Jan 2026.

Key 2025 Actuals & 2026 Macro Themes

Synthesis of BEA, BLS, Goldman Sachs, Deloitte, EY, RSM, Morgan Stanley, Stanford SIEPR

📊 2025 GDP: resilient but uneven — Full-year +2.2% matched forecasts despite extreme quarterly volatility. Q1 −0.6% was distorted by tariff front-loading (massive import surge). Q2 +3.8% and Q3 +4.4% showed robust consumer and export demand. Q4 slowed to +1.4% due to the 43-day government shutdown — the longest in history. EY noted the year saw "pronounced trade gyrations and a rare constellation of supply shocks."

📉 Jobs revised sharply lower — The Jan 2026 BLS benchmark revision cut 2025 total payrolls by 862,000 — from +1.04M to +181K (≈15K/mo). This is the largest benchmark downward revision since 2009. Healthcare (+630K) and government (+277K) were the only sectors with strong gains. Information tech lost −49K. Federal employment down 327K cumulatively from Oct'24 peak (DOGE) — note this is peak-to-trough across 16+ months, not a single-year total. The 2025 annual net change was −200K. Government unemployment remains low (~2.2%) because displaced federal workers tend to transfer to state/local roles, retire, or were contractors excluded from the payroll survey.

🔄 Tariff drag fading → tax cut tailwind — Goldman Sachs estimates tariffs subtracted ~0.6pp from GDP in H2 2025. With tariff rates largely stable, this mechanical drag fades in 2026. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act delivers ~$100B in additional consumer tax refunds in H1 2026, equivalent to +0.4% of disposable income. Full expensing of capex already boosting business investment indicators.

🤖 AI remains the dominant growth driver — Hyperscaler capex surged +69% in 2025; consensus expects +33% more in 2026. Data center construction and chip spending drove real equipment investment. Goldman and RSM cite AI as "the primary driver of growth for at least another year." Key risk: AI bubble — if ROI disappoints, this $1.5T+ investment wave could reverse sharply.

⚠️ 2026 key risk: stagflation trap — Stanford SIEPR and Morgan Stanley flag stagflation as the main tail risk. Core PCE at 2.8% Dec'25 — above Fed target. If tariffs reignite inflation while unemployment rises (currently 4.3–4.5%), the Fed faces a dilemma: cut rates risks inflation; hold rates risks recession. Three FOMC members dissented on the December 2025 decision — most dissents since 2019. Goldman sees 2 cuts (Jun + Sep); Morgan Stanley sees extended pause at 3.0–3.25%.

🏛️ SCOTUS tariff ruling: the wildcard — Stanford estimates ~75% probability the Supreme Court rules against IEEPA tariff authority. A broad ruling could force rollback of most tariffs. Markets would likely rally sharply on reduced inflation pressure. However, Stanford expects the administration to seek workarounds rather than reverse the trade regime.

📈 Section 1 — Price & Supply

WTI & Brent — 35-Year History

Annual average $/bbl · 1990–2025 · EIA · Note: 2022 avg $94.5 masks Jun peak of $114–123 · grey bands = NBER recessions

Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA). Annual average $/bbl, 1990–2025. Grey bands = NBER recessions.

WTI & Brent — Monthly Jan 2022–Feb 2026 (Prior Month)

Monthly avg $/bbl · Jan 2022–Feb 2026 · EIA · Ends prior complete month · ⚡ Mar 2026 spike shown in daily chart →

Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA). Monthly average $/bbl, Jan 2022–Feb 2026.

🔥 Section 2 — Inflation Transmission

How oil flows into CPI: A $10/bbl rise in WTI reaches gas pumps within 2–4 weeks, appears in CPI Energy within 6–8 weeks, and bleeds into Food Away from Home and transportation services over 3–6 months. The 2022 spike to $123/bbl peak (annual avg $94.5) directly caused CPI Energy to surge +7.3% YoY and was the primary driver of the Fed's 525bp hiking cycle. Mar 2026 Hormuz shock: WTI spiked to ~$98/bbl (Mar 13) from $71 at the start of the month — currently hovering around $93. If sustained above $90, expect CPI Energy to add +0.3–0.5pp to headline inflation by Q2'26, complicating the Fed's path when Core PCE is already at 3.1%.

⚡ ACTIVE SUPPLY SHOCK — Strait of Hormuz · Since Mar 2026

Oil Supply Shock Tracker — Daily Closes

Cumulative price action since Iran conflict · EIA / CME

Full Oil Impact Chain — Prices to Credit Stress

How a sustained oil spike transmits through inflation into consumer credit · two phases, one continuous sequence

🔥 PHASE 1 — Inflation Transmission · Weeks 1–6+ 💳 PHASE 2 — Consumer & Credit Stress · Months 1–12

🏭 Section 3 — Sector Impact

Sector Margin Impact — Oil Sensitivity

Estimated EBITDA margin impact per $10/bbl WTI move · analyst estimates · directional, not exact

⚠️ Section 4 — Recession Signal History

Oil shocks and recessions have historically often coincided — though causality is debated and other factors typically contribute. The general pattern: sustained price spike → inflation pressure → tighter policy → slower growth. The Mar 2026 Hormuz shock is still evolving; WTI peaked near $98 (Mar 13) and remains elevated around $93 as of mid-March. Worth monitoring if prices re-escalate or persist above $90 for an extended period.

WTI Price History with Recession Shading · 1973–2025

Annual WTI $/bbl · NBER recession years shaded red · 1973–2025

Source: EIA (WTI historical prices); NBER (recession dating). Annual averages, 1973–2025.

Historical Oil Shock Episodes

Major oil price dislocations and their economic consequences

📉 Credit Cycle Monitor — Q4 2025 / Q1 2026 — Consumer credit stress is the dominant banking theme entering 2026. Card NCO rates at 2011-era highs for mass-market issuers (Synchrony 5.4%, Capital One 4.9%). Student loan 90+ DPD at 9.4% after pandemic forbearance reporting resumed. Auto delinquency peaking. New risk: Feb'26 payrolls at −92K and DSR at 11.3% of disposable income raise the specter of unemployment-driven credit deterioration — the classic late-cycle feedback loop. Bright spots: prime/super-prime (Amex best-in-class), mortgage (low delinquency), USB (0.54% NCO). SLOOS tightening pace slowing. Watch: if unemployment rises above 4.5% while DSR stays elevated, card NCO rates could breach 6%+ for subprime issuers.

Delinquency Rates by Product — 90+ Days Past Due (%)

NY Fed Household Debt & Credit · quarterly · Q3 2025

⚠ Student loan 90+ DPD data unavailable 2003–2007: NY Fed HHDC began tracking student loans in 2003, but reliable delinquency reporting lagged until ~2008 due to limited servicer data and high deferment/forbearance rates among recent graduates. Pre-2020 values (6–11%) reflect true delinquency; 2020–Q1'25 shows 0% due to CARES Act/on-ramp payment pause.

Net Charge-Off Rates — Card Specialists vs Diversified Banks

Q4 2025 actuals & 2026F guidance · card specialists carry structurally higher NCO than diversified banks due to unsecured lending mix

💳 Card Specialists

🏦 Diversified Banks — Consumer NCO

⚠ Note: Card specialists report card-only NCO on near-100% card portfolios. Diversified bank rates are blended across cards, auto, and mortgage. Not directly comparable.

Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOOS) — Tightening Standards %

Net % of banks tightening consumer lending standards · Fed · NY Fed Recession Prob. overlay · Card 90+ DPD — 25-year signal history

Recession Probability % SLOOS Tightening % (bars) Card 90+ DPD % NBER recession

Risk assessment: Credit card delinquencies lag recession probability by approximately 5 quarters (r = 0.50) — once the yield curve signals distress, card losses are already building beneath the surface. SLOOS bank tightening serves as the transmission mechanism, forecasting elevated card stress roughly 3 quarters forward (r = 0.48). Notably, card delinquencies deteriorate ahead of broader consumer credit products (all-product DQ r = 0.27, ~5Q lag), positioning cards as the earliest observable stress indicator in the consumer credit cycle.

Data through Q4 2025 · Last updated Mar 2026 Next refresh: May 2026 (Q1'26 SLOOS + NY Fed HH Debt)

Recession Prob. (solid purple): NY Fed model — 12-month-ahead probability based on Treasury 10Y–3M yield spread. The yield curve typically inverts before banks tighten (SLOOS), making recession prob. a leading indicator of tightening. This differs from the Outlook tab, which shows forward-looking consensus estimates from Wall Street firms for 2026.

Correlation findings

Key takeaways:

The yield curve is the earliest warning — inversions precede bank tightening and credit losses by 15–30 months
SLOOS tightening is the transmission mechanism — when banks restrict lending, borrower stress follows within 2–4 quarters
Card 90+ DPD is the lagging confirmation — delinquencies rise last, peaking 5–10 quarters after the yield curve first signals trouble
Current read (Q4'25): Recession prob. down to 19% (from 71% peak), SLOOS near neutral (+2%), but Card DPD remains elevated at 9.8% — the lag effect from 2023 tightening is still playing out

Lag timing (quarters):

Signal pair	Lead time	Example
Yield Curve inversion → Recession Prob rises	1–2 Q	Curve inverted Q3'22, prob peaked Q1'24 at 71%
Recession Prob → SLOOS Tightening	2–4 Q	Prob rose Q3'07, SLOOS peaked Q3'08 (+60%)
SLOOS Tightening → Card 90+ DPD	2–4 Q	SLOOS peaked Q3'08, Card DPD peaked Q1'10 (13.7%)
Full cycle: Yield Curve → Card losses	5–10 Q	~15–30 months end-to-end

Consumer Credit Growth — Revolving vs Non-Revolving YoY %

Federal Reserve G.19 Consumer Credit · annual % change

Source: Federal Reserve G.19 Consumer Credit release. Annual % change, revolving vs non-revolving.

Household Debt Composition & Stress — Q3 2025

NY Fed Household Debt & Credit Report Q3 2025 · balances & delinquency by product

Sources: NY Fed Center for Microeconomic Data — Household Debt & Credit Q3 2025 (Nov 2025); Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey Q4 2025; FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile Q3 2025; individual bank Q4 2025 earnings releases. Student loan delinquency: first reporting in credit bureaus since pandemic forbearance ended — one-time jump to 9.4% reflects accumulated non-payers.

📋

Why did Student Loans spike from 0% to 9.4% in Q2 2025? During COVID-19 (Mar 2020 – Sept 2023), federal student loan payments were in administrative forbearance — delinquencies were not reported to credit bureaus. When the SAVE plan lawsuit froze repayments again in 2024, servicers were still required to begin reporting delinquencies to credit bureaus starting Q1–Q2 2025. The jump from 0% → 9.4% is a one-time statistical re-entry of ~5 million accumulated non-payers back into the credit reporting system, not new deterioration. Stability at 9.4% through Q3 2025 confirms the rate is plateauing as the re-entry cohort is fully counted.

🏠 Housing Commentary — Affordability Crisis & Lock-In Effect

Latest: Existing home sales remain near 30-year lows — the lock-in effect persists. ~65% of mortgages carry rates below 4%; with 30yr mortgage rates at 6.2% (Mar'26), owners still have little incentive to sell. Home prices: Case-Shiller +1.3% YoY (Dec'25) — price appreciation has decelerated sharply from +4.7% mid-2025 as affordability constraints bite. NAR Affordability at historic low — median household needs 43% of gross income for the median home (norm: 25–30%). Starts: Single-family recovering (+12% in 2025); multi-family collapsing (−28%) as apartment completions flood markets. Rate outlook: with Core PCE re-accelerating to 3.1% and the Fed on hold at 3.64%, rate relief is uncertain. Price appreciation slowing toward +1–2%; volume remains frozen until rates break below 6.0%.

Monthly Housing Trend — Case-Shiller YoY % & 30yr Mortgage Rate (12-Month)

Case-Shiller National HPI YoY % (left axis) · 30yr fixed mortgage rate (right axis) · monthly

Source: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (monthly, 2-month lag); Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), weekly avg → monthly. Inverse relationship: higher rates suppress demand → slower price growth.

Home Price Index — Case-Shiller & FHFA (2012=100)

National composite annual indices · S&P/Case-Shiller, FHFA

Source: S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index; FHFA House Price Index. Annual composite indices, base year 2012=100.

30-Year Mortgage Rate vs Fed Funds Rate

Annual averages 2018–2026F · Freddie Mac PMMS · Fed

Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (30yr fixed); Federal Reserve (effective federal funds rate). Annual averages.

Housing Starts — Single-Family vs Multi-Family (000s units)

Annual seasonally adjusted · Census Bureau

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Housing starts, seasonally adjusted annual rate (000s).

Affordability Index & Months Supply

NAR Housing Affordability Index (100=qualifying income) · months supply

Source: NAR Housing Affordability Index; NAR Existing Home Sales (months supply).

Metro Home Price Performance — Key Markets 2024–2025

YoY % price change · median price · Case-Shiller metro indices & Zillow

Sources: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Jan 2026; FHFA House Price Index Q3 2025; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey; NAR Existing Home Sales & Affordability; Census Bureau New Residential Construction; Zillow Home Value Index Dec 2025. Mortgage rate 2025 avg: ~6.7%. Lock-in effect: ~85% of outstanding mortgages carry rates below 5%.

Fed Funds at 3.64% (effective rate), FOMC range 3.50–3.75%. 10Y at 4.25%, 2Y at 3.79% — spread +46bp, curve normalized after prolonged inversion. Rate path: with Core PCE re-accelerating to 3.1% and the labor market softening (−92K Feb payrolls), the Fed faces a policy dilemma. Markets pricing ~2 cuts by year-end but timing uncertain. The 10Y-2Y spread turning positive historically signals transition to a new cycle — but whether expansion or contraction depends on incoming data. Watch: if unemployment rises above 4.5% while inflation stays sticky, expect steeper curve as long-end prices in stagflation risk.

Fed Funds Rate — Actual vs FOMC Dot Plot 2026F

Actual year-end rate + Dec 2025 SEP median dots · Wall St consensus · Federal Reserve

Sources: Federal Reserve H.15; FOMC Dec 2025 SEP (dot plot); GS, JPM, MS forecasts (Jan 2026).

Fed Rate Cycle History & Wall St Forecasts

FOMC rate path 2018–2026F · bank NIM cycle · card issuer yield · GS / JPM / MS targets

Sources: Federal Reserve H.15; FOMC December 2025 SEP; ICE BofA US Corporate & High Yield indices; Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley rate forecasts Jan 2026.

Card Issuer Funding Mix — Deposits vs Market Borrowing

Bank-wide deposits vs total loans · L/D ratio · FDIC Call Reports & 10-K filings · Q4 2025

Sources: FDIC Call Reports (Schedule RC-E, RC-M) Q4 2025; Company 10-K/10-Q filings; Federal Reserve H.8; S&P Global Market Intelligence. Deposits & Total Loans = bank-wide figures ($B). L/D ratio = total loans / total deposits; >100% means loans exceed deposits, requiring wholesale funding. Card Yield = card portfolio interest yield where disclosed in quarterly earnings supplements or 10-K; "—" = not separately reported. Rate sensitivity = estimated NII impact of +100bp rate shock. Tickers: JPM = JPMorgan Chase; BAC = Bank of America; CITI = Citigroup; COF = Capital One; DFS = Discover Financial; AXP = American Express; BCS = Barclays; SYF = Synchrony Financial; BFH = Bread Financial.

10Y Treasury Yield vs Card 90+ DPD — Yield & Credit Risk Signal

Annual avg yields (FRED DGS10/DGS2) · Card 90+ DPD % (NY Fed HHDC) · Shaded band = yield curve inversion · 2000–Mar'26

10Y Yield

2Y Yield

Card 90+ DPD %

Inversion zone

Source: Federal Reserve H.15 (Treasury yields); NY Fed HHDC (Card 90+ DPD). Annual data, 2000–present.

📖 Sources, Definitions & Dashboard Guide — All data sourced from U.S. federal agencies, central bank surveys, financial regulators, and publicly reported bank earnings. Forecast figures are consensus or institution-specific estimates published Jan–Mar 2026. Dashboard current as of April 5, 2026. Latest data: Mar'26 BLS (jobs, unemployment, wages), Feb'26 BLS (CPI), Jan'26 BEA (PCE), Apr'26 FRED (claims, yields).

KPI Signal Color Logic

Each KPI tile in the header strip is color-coded based on defined economic thresholds. Colors update automatically when data changes — no manual assignment.

● Green = Healthy — within normal/target range ● Amber = Watch — approaching stress levels ● Red = Stress — outside normal bounds, action warranted ● Purple = Policy Rate — Fed-set or influenced, not a directional signal

Metric	● Green (Healthy)	● Amber (Watch)	● Red (Stress)	Rationale
Unemployment Rate	< 4.0%	4.0 – 4.9%	≥ 5.0%	Sub-4% = full employment (NAIRU ~4%). Above 5% historically signals recession onset. Fed dual mandate target.
Jobs MoM (K)	> +100K	0 – +100K	< 0	+100K/mo = breakeven for population growth. Sub-zero = active contraction. Based on BLS CES nonfarm payrolls.
CPI YoY %	< 2.5%	2.5 – 3.5%	≥ 3.5%	Fed targets ~2% inflation. Below 2.5% = near target. Above 3.5% = persistent overshoot requiring policy response.
Core PCE YoY %	< 2.5%	2.5 – 3.0%	≥ 3.0%	Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Tighter thresholds than CPI because PCE is the actual policy target. Above 3% = hawkish Fed.
Wage Growth %	3.0 – 4.5%	Outside range	< 2% or > 6%	Goldilocks zone: 3-4.5% supports consumption without fueling wage-price spiral. Below 2% = stagnation. Above 6% = overheating (2021-22 peak).
Initial Claims (K)	< 220K	220 – 280K	≥ 280K	Pre-pandemic normal ~210K. Above 250K = labor market softening. 300K+ historically precedes recessions. Weekly leading indicator.
UMich Sentiment	≥ 70	55 – 70	< 55	Long-run avg ~85. Below 70 = consumer pessimism. Sub-55 = crisis-level (2008: 55, 2022: 50). Leads spending by 1-2 quarters.
Debt Service Ratio %	< 10.5%	10.5 – 12%	≥ 12%	FRED TDSP: mortgage + consumer debt payments as % of disposable income. 2007 peak: 13.2%. Above 12% = financial stress rising.
Fed Funds / 10Y Treasury	Always purple — policy rate, not a directional signal			Rates set by FOMC or market expectations. Not inherently good/bad — context-dependent (inflation regime, growth outlook, term premium).

Dashboard Tab Index

12 tabs · what each covers · key metrics · data source

Tab	What it covers	Key metrics shown	Primary source	As of
🔭 Outlook	2026 macro scenarios, recession probabilities, institutional forecasts, risk factors	GDP growth range, recession prob, Fed path, key risks	GS · JPM · Deloitte · EY · RSM · MS	Feb 2026
📊 GDP	Real GDP growth by quarter and sector breakdown, 2026 forecast table	Real GDP % QoQ, sector GVA shares, forecast consensus	BEA NIPA Tables 1.1.1 & GDP-by-Industry	Feb 2026
📋 Jobs	Nonfarm payrolls — total and by sector, 2025 benchmark revision context	Monthly payrolls added, sector breakdown, annual avg	BLS CES	Mar 2026
👷 Unemployment	U-3 headline and U-6 broad unemployment, sector rates, weekly initial & continued jobless claims	U-3 rate, U-6 rate, sector unemployment YoY, weekly claims	BLS CPS · DOL / FRED (ICSA, CCSA)	Mar 2026
💵 Wages	Average hourly earnings, real wage growth, sector wage differentials	AHE $/hr, nominal YoY %, real wage growth	BLS CES Table B-3	Feb 2026
🛒 CPI	Consumer price inflation — headline, core, and 8 component categories	CPI YoY, core CPI, shelter, food, energy by category	BLS CPI-U (CUUR0000SA0 series)	Jan 2026
💳 PCE & Consumer	Fed's preferred inflation gauge, personal saving rate, consumer credit growth	PCE headline & core YoY, saving rate %, credit growth	BEA Personal Income & Outlays · Fed G.19	Jan 2026
📈 Fed Rates	Treasury yield curve, Fed funds rate history, FOMC dot plot, 2026 rate path, card issuer funding & yield	2Y/10Y/30Y yields, 2Y–10Y spread, FOMC dots, card yield %	Fed H.15 · FOMC SEP Dec 2025 · FDIC · Earnings	Mar 2026
🔗 Credit	Credit spreads, card delinquency, net charge-offs, lending standards	IG/HY OAS, 90+DPD delinquency, NCO rates, SLOOS	FRED ICE BofA · NY Fed HHDC · Bank earnings	Q4 2025
🏦 Banks	Big 5 bank earnings — net income, NII, ROTCE, CET1, 2026 NII guidance	Net income, NII, ROTCE %, CET1 %, 2026 NII guide	Q4 2025 earnings releases (Jan 2026)	Q4 2025
🏠 Housing	Home prices, mortgage rates, housing starts, affordability, metro table	HPI YoY, 30yr mortgage rate, starts, affordability index	Case-Shiller · FHFA · Census · Freddie Mac · NAR	Jan 2026
🛢️ Oil	WTI/Brent prices, U.S. production, 2026 price outlook from 7 institutions	WTI/Brent $/bbl, U.S. mb/d, 2026 price range	EIA STEO Feb 2026 · GS · JPM · IEA · OPEC	Feb 2026

Key Definitions

Common terms used across dashboard tabs

Term	Definition
Real GDP	Inflation-adjusted output. PCE deflator applied to strip price effects. BEA NIPA 1.1.1.
Core CPI / PCE	Excludes volatile food & energy. Fed targets 2% core PCE. Feb 2026: Core CPI 2.5%, Core PCE 3.1%.
U-3 vs U-6	U-3 = headline unemployment. U-6 adds marginally attached + involuntary part-time. Jan 2026: U-3 4.0%, U-6 8.0%.
AHE	Average Hourly Earnings — mean hourly wage of all private nonfarm workers. Jan 2026: $37.22, +4.1% YoY.
UMCSENT	University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment — monthly survey of consumer confidence. Pre-pandemic avg ~95. 2022 low: 50. Source: sca.isr.umich.edu.
TDSP	Household Debt Service Ratio — debt payments as % of disposable income. Fed Reserve Board. Includes mortgage + consumer. 2007 peak: ~13.2%. Current: ~9.8%.
ADP Report	ADP National Employment Report — private payroll estimate from ADP payroll processing data. Released 2 days before BLS. Source: adpemploymentreport.com. Often diverges from BLS.
Initial Claims (ICSA)	Weekly count of new unemployment insurance filings. Released Thursdays by DOL. SA. Below ~250K = healthy labor market. Spikes signal layoffs.
Continued Claims (CCSA)	Weekly count of ongoing unemployment insurance recipients. Lags initial claims by 1 week. Rising continued claims = harder re-employment.
2Y–10Y Spread	10yr minus 2yr Treasury. Negative = inverted (recession signal). Record 793-day inversion ended mid-2025; now ~+25bp.
OAS	Option-Adjusted Spread — bond yield premium over Treasuries. IG ~85bp, HY ~305bp (near cycle tights).
NCO Rate	Net Charge-Offs annualized ÷ avg loan balances. Card specialists structurally higher than diversified banks.
NIM	Net Interest Margin = NII ÷ earning assets. Expanded during rate hike cycle; compressing as cuts begin.
Card Yield	Interest yield on card loan portfolio. Disclosed by card-heavy issuers (COF 19.8%, DFS 21.1%, SYF 25.3%, BFH 28.9%). Diversified banks (JPM, BAC, CITI) report blended NIM only.

Term	Definition
CET1	Common Equity Tier 1 ratio — core capital ÷ risk-weighted assets. Regulatory minimum 4.5% + buffers. Big banks: 11–14%.
ROTCE	Return on Tangible Common Equity — net income ÷ tangible book. Key bank profitability benchmark. JPM 2025: 20%.
SLOOS	Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. Fed quarterly. Net % tightening. Q4 2025: ~2% (near neutral).
HPI	House Price Index. Case-Shiller uses repeat-sales methodology. FHFA covers conforming loans only.
Lock-in Effect	~85% of mortgage holders have sub-5% rates — reluctant to sell and face 6.6%+ replacement rate.
WTI / Brent	West Texas Intermediate (U.S. benchmark) and Brent (global). Spread typically $2–5/bbl. 2025 avg: WTI $65.4, Brent $69.1.
BEA / BLS / EIA	Bureau of Economic Analysis / Bureau of Labor Statistics / Energy Information Administration — primary federal data agencies.
2026F	2026 forecast — consensus midpoint unless institution-specific. Subject to revision. Tariff uncertainty = primary risk.

🔭 Forecast Institutions — Methodology Notes

All forecasts as of Jan–Feb 2026 · ordered by 2026 GDP outlook high to low

Institution	GDP 2026F	Rec. Prob.	Key assumptions	Published
Goldman Sachs GIR	+2.6%	20%	Tax cuts offset tariff drag H2 2026; most bullish on inflation declining	Jan 2026
RSM US	+2.2%	30%	AI & deregulation tailwinds; SMB optimism post-election; rec prob cut from 40%	Feb 2026
EY-Parthenon	+2.0%	25%	Solid private demand; govt shutdown rebound H1 2026; upside +2.4% if AI capex holds	Jan 2026
Morgan Stanley	+2.0%	30%	Stagflation tail risk; tariffs + immigration = supply shock; FOMC pause if PCE >3%	Jan 2026
Deloitte (base)	+1.9%	25%	Tariff pass-through hits consumers; AI bubble risk; bear: +0.5%	Jan 2026
JP Morgan	+1.8%	30%	Low-hire low-fire labor base; wages converging to 3.5%; 2× Fed cuts assumed	Jan 2026
IBRC / Stanford SIEPR	+1.8%	30–35%	Stagflation biggest concern; SCOTUS IEEPA tariff ruling = key wildcard	Jan 2026
Blue Chip Consensus	+2.1%	~25%	Survey of 50+ forecasters; range 1.8–2.4%; tariff uncertainty main headwind	Feb 2026

All data sourced from publicly available government releases, regulatory filings, bank earnings press releases, and published institutional research. No proprietary data used. Forecasts represent views of cited institutions only. Historical data subject to revision by source agencies.

🤖 Dynamic Commentary — AI-Generated from Live Data

All tab commentaries are dynamically generated by Claude AI (Agent 3) on each pipeline run. The AI reads the latest FRED/BLS/EIA data from signals.json, compares against prior snapshots, and writes fresh 2–3 sentence commentary for each tab. Commentary is injected into the dashboard via id="commentary-{tab}" markers. Tabs covered: GDP, Jobs, Unemployment, Wages, CPI, PCE, Fed Rates, Credit, Housing, Oil, Banks.